Now that we’ve all caught Biden fever, our next question is: What will happen to Joe Biden’s Senate seat?
Well, a number of things could happen. Biden is up for re-election this year, and if he wanted to, Delaware election law allows him to remain on the November ballot. In that case, if the Obama-Biden ticket wins in November, Biden can take the Senate oath and then resign, allowing Democratic Gov. Ruth Ann Minner, in her last days in office (her term expires on January 20, 2009 — the same day as the presidential inauguration), to appoint a replacement who would serve until 2010. However, it’s not obvious to me that we want to endure the Democratic Party’s vice-presidential nominee appearing to be “hedging his bets” once again.
If Biden pulls his name from the ballot, the party would (I assume) be able to name a replacement candidate. The conventional wisdom suggests that the go-to guy to fill this slot is none other than Beau Biden, Joe’s son and Attorney General of Delaware. The younger Biden would be a strong bet to hold this seat.
Could the GOP possibly make a race of this? It’s difficult to make a case in their favor here, even if the elder Biden is off the ballot. Despite not being an overwhelmingly blue state in the most recent presidential elections (Kerry won the state by 7 points in 2004, and Gore by 13), the GOP bench in Delaware is abysmally weak. It’s so bad, in fact, that the state GOP is not even seriously contesting the open seat gubernatorial election this year.
The only conceivable way that the GOP could make a real race of this would be if they nominated the state’s at-large Rep. Mike Castle, a popular former Governor who has bucked the state’s blue trend to hold on to his House seat with ease. However, Castle is 69 years old, and suffered some minor strokes in the fall of 2006. Is he really up for six years in the Senate at this point? Castle has expressed reluctance to take on a Senate bid, but has not conclusively ruled one out, to the best of my knowledge. Still, this option seems like a long shot at best for the GOP.
The Delaware GOP does have a candidate on the ballot for this race already – conservative talking head Christine O’Donnell. With Delaware’s filing deadline having passed in July, she would have to agree to pull out of the race in order for the GOP to tap a stronger candidate – but the GOP’s recruiting prospects here do not look promising right now, especially when you consider the failed track record of NRSC Chair John Ensign this cycle.
This seat is very likely a safe hold, but we’ll have to see which path Joe Biden chooses first before we can paint a clearer picture.
Update: Another option, as mentioned in the comments but one I glossed over last night, is for Democrats to fill Biden’s slot with the loser of Delaware’s gubernatorial primary this year between Lt. Gov. John Carney and State Treasurer Jack Markell — both seem to be sensible choices, especially as Beau Biden is currently serving soon to be deployed to Iraq.
They are in a state of disarray. They haven’t held the governship since 1992, they have only a slim grip on the Delaware State House, and they’re the minority in the State Senate. They’re certainly not looking to win the governship once Ruth Ann Minner steps down due to term limits this year.
As for any potential candidates, yeah Castle is definitely too old (he’s older than Biden himself, who’s been around for 36 years). Jan Ting was expelled from the Republican Party for supporting Barack Obama, and Christine O’Donnell may be good looking but she’s just another right wing nutjob.
However, I don’t know the wisdom of selecting Beau Biden to fill out the term until 2010. He’s actually in Iraq right now, and wouldn’t it look like some sort of family entitlement to have another Biden as Senator?
In that case, Delaware Democrats could choose the loser of the gubernatorial primary (Lt. Gov. John Carney or Treasurer Jack Markell, both strong statewide candidates) to replace Biden on the ballot.
Also, no way would the Republicans pick up this seat. The Delaware GOP is one of the most moribund, ineffectual state parties in the country.
Could be the loser of the Gubernatorial primary(Treasurer Markell or Lt. Gov. Carney), Insurance Commissioner Matt Denn, and one of Castle’s many former or current Democratic challengers(Miller, Northington, Nagle, Spivack, etc…).
“Do no harm”
Biden does not result in the loss of a senate, house, or governor seat. Of the final five candidates; Biden, Sebelius, Bayh, Kaine, and Chet Edwards – only Biden and Sebelius followed this rule.
Biden’s poop joke earlier this week won me over. Should be a fun 2 months.
I took a read of Delaware election law on-line and it appears that Delaware has a situation similar to the Texas law that kept the GOP from being able to designate a replacement for Delay — it seems to only allow party committees to replace a candidate in the event of death or major incapacity of the candidate. I couldn’t find any other provision in law for a party to replace a nominated candidate because of withdraw.
(Major caveat – I don’t pretend to know anything about Delaware election law, I’m not a lawyer, and I could easily have missed something while reading the election code on-line)
If that is the case, the only options would appear to be
– Biden running for re-election. As correctly noted above, Gov. Miner would name his replacement if he wins re-election and resigns to become VP.
– selecting another nominee through a write in campaign in the September 9th primary. The time table seems rather unrealistic for organizing something that complex in a short period, especially since there are probably quite a few ambitious Delaware Democrats who might not really want to step aside for Beau.
I assume Joe Biden will do what Lieberman did in 2000, and Lyndon Johnson did in 1960… assuming Delaware law allows him to be on the ballot for 2 federal offices at the same time (I didn’t find anything in the code that seemed to rule that out).
for anyone inclined to try to read for themself, here is the link to Delaware’s election law
http://delcode.delaware.gov/ti…
Beau Biden is being deployed to Iraq for a year in October. Biden would probably love to hand the seat to Beau but Beau would be gone for the first 9 months of the job. So I doubt that’s a possibility.
I bet the loser of the gubernatorial primary will either replace Biden on the ballot or be appointed for him.
I know very little about Beau Biden’s politics, but as a general principle I would rather another candidate got the nod. Dynasties are unappealing at the best of times, and tapping him would play straight into Republican charges of elitism.
I lived all my life in DE (and still work there). I hope it’s not Beau. Not a bad guy, but it wouldn’t go over too well. He barely won the AG (by 4 pts), and he only won due to his name and having a (D) next to his name. I hope the Gubernatorial primary loser takes it. It looks like Carney will win, so I would love to see Jack Markell run for senator. Carney has all of the state Democratic Party support and I feel he is the weaker candidate. I’d be happy with either as Senator and governor, but Markell seems more progressive, especially about LGBT issues. DE is stuck back in the stone ages for gay rights, but I have faith both men will turn that around. The Democratic folks running for Mike Castle’s seat have NO chance and would have little chance for the senate seat either. There could always be some surprise from the state house or senate. Either way, it should stay in Democratic hands, just a Beau pick I am afraid would be much closer result than necessary.
Almost wish I didn’t live/vote in PA, the Democratic party in Wilmington this year is going to be amazing (it was in 06).
Would be if Gov. Minner picked herself. I really hope that isn’t going to happen.
In 1988, Lloyd Bentsen ran for Senate as well as VP, and won re-election. I still think even with the depleted state of the Delaware GOP, it might be wise for Biden
to run for both offices. Has he made a decision yet?
“…especially as Beau Biden is currently serving in Iraq.”
Can you imagine the media event it would be if Delaware named an active soldier on duty as the Senate replacement?
There is precedent, I believe — w/ WW II, various sitting officials signed up to serve — until Roosevelt, as commander in chief, ordered the federally officials to serve in their elected office.
but he’s really conservative, really economially conservative, probably to the right of Carper who is the most conservative Democrat representing a state that went for Kerry, indeed in 2006 while we were primarying Lieberman, Carper’s record was more conservative. We don’t want Markell in.
which one is the DLC rising star??
Swing state chock full of races + popular governor (domestic issues) + energy (under Clinton) + foreign affairs + border state (immigration) + Hispanic.
Oh well…
It’s interesting to see all the negative dynasty comments on this page, given that the Democrats have two of the biggest political dynasties in the Kennedys and the Gores. It would be interesting to see if the anti-dynasty posters are also down on those two families! Plus it seems like every member of the Carnahan family has held office in MO, and two are frequently cited by Democrats as rising stars. Then there’re the Landrieus in LA. How do we feel about them?
Seriously, though, politics in this country have always featured dynasties. Back in my home state there were the La Follettes, at least one of whom held major elective office in WI for the better part of a century. The woman I’m trying like heck to get elected to the Senate this year from NC is the niece of a man who served as both a governor and a senator, so I guess she’s part of a dynasty, too. Won’t keep me from supporting her!
Might be a fun post – have everyone write about political dynasties in their states. I think a lot of folks would be overwhelmed by how many there are.